The 2008 Cincinnati Reds finished in fifth place in the NL Central, coming in with a record of 74-88. Their 2009 team will look significantly different from the team that opened the 2008 season, as Ken Griffey Jr. departed during the season in a trade to the Chicago White Sox, and it appears that Adam Dunn will most likely not be back. Taking their place as the future core of the Reds are OF Jay Bruce, 1B Joey Votto, and SP Edinson Volquez. Volquez probably had the best first year out of the three, but Bruce and Votto both have superstar potential and should begin to show their true talent level in 2009. While the talent around them is mostly leavue-average, with the addition of a few other pieces, the Reds could contend in the NL Central in a year or two
more info. For 2009, though, fans will have to be content with finishing somewhere in the middle of the pack, possibly a few wins better than 2008.
C Ramon Hernandez - Hernandez has been a solid offensive catcher over his career, though he struggled during his last two seasons with the Orioles, posting an OPS of .714 in each season. Look for a bit of a bounceback into the mid-.700s in 2009 with the Reds, as he is capable of hitting 12-18 home runs and should post an average around .265. Defensively, Hernandez used to throw out 30-40% of base-stealers, but this number has dipped into the low-20s in recent years, and he no longer can consistently keep baserunners at bay. He should provide solid offense for the Reds next season, but don't expect him to be an All-Star.
1B Joey Votto - Votto had a tremendous first full season in the majors, putting up an OPS+ of 124 while hitting 24 home runs and compiling an OBP of .368. Votto is the total package offensively. He will hit for average, has good gap power, has good home run power, and can work the count effectively. What is there to expect from him going forward? Sometime in the next couple of years, Votto will be in the elite class of first basemen. At his peak, he should put up an OPS in the mid-.900s consistently, with 35 home runs annually. Defensively, Votto has above-average range for a first baseman, but needs to work on his hands a bit, as well as his throws to second base. These are minor things for him to work on, and look for him to build on his 2008 and have a strong 2009 that shows improvement in all areas of his game.
2B Brandon Phillips - Phillips has always had plenty of natural talent, but has never seemed to be able to put it completely together, either because of maturity issues or circumstances surrounding him. It certainly appears that he won't reach his potential at this point, as his line of .262/.312/.442 is a near replica of his career line. Offensively, Phillips has good power and speed, but he lacks baseball instincts or a good approach at the plate, as he was successful in only 23 out of 33 stolen base attempts last season, and had a BB/K ratio of 39/93. Defensively, he is superb, grading out well above-average in almost every metric there is. However, it looks as though he will never reach his offensive ceiling, and Reds fans can expect more of the same from him next season.
3B Edwin Encarnacion - Encarnacion goes unnoticed, probably because he plays for the Reds, but he is a very solid third baseman who is capable both offensively and defensively. Last season, he hit a career-high 26 home runs while posting an OPS+ of 106, just above his career average of 103. Encarnacion has solid power and gap power. Encarnacion also saw his BABIP drop by nearly 40 points last year, so he still has room to improve, and projects as a player who can post an OPS in the mid-.800s consistently at his peak. Look for him to continue to show improvement towards this with the Reds in 2009.
SS Alex Gonzalez - While Gonzalez endured a multitude of knee problems last year that eventually culminated in microfracture surgery, he appears to have the inside track on the shortstop job for 2009, partially because the Reds seem unlikely to put him on the bench when he's making nearly $5.5 million. When healthy, Gonzalez's strength lies in his defense, where he has above-average range and phenomenal footwork that allows him to make plays that others simply could not. He possesses a solid and accurate arm, as well as good hands turning the double play. His offense is fairly one-dimensional, as he will hit 12-18 home runs in a given year with an average around .260, but he simply does not work counts well, and his career OBP is .295. Look for him to provide defensive stability, even if his offense leaves something to be desired.
LF Chris Dickerson - Dickerson is going to be in a three-way battle for the LF spot with Jerry Hairston and Nick Hopper, but we give him the edge here due to his impressive stint with the Reds last season. Although it was a short sample, Dickerson put up a line of .304/.413/.608 in 31 games. While he certainly won't duplicate these numbers, he should be good for an OPS in the high-.700s, which is all the Reds could want out of him in his first full season in the majors. Look for him to provide solid offense and average defense for the Reds in 2009.
CF Willy Taveras - Taveras is not a good offensive player. He obviously has speed to burn, with 68 steals last season, but when your career OBP is .331, you need to have something more than speed going for you. Unfortunately, Taveras is completely one-dimensional, as his career SLG is only .337, and his OPS+ for his career is 72. In five full season, he has only 80 extra-base hits. These are not numbers that you want out of your leadoff hitter, yet he keeps getting chances because of his speed. Defensively, Taveras is average, as he gets bad jumps on balls and doesn't always take the best routes, meaning that his speed is nullified. Don't expect much out of him in 2009, as his course in the majors is pretty much set at this point.
RF Jay Bruce - In the two weeks after his call-up in 2008, Bruce looked like he had a chance to be the best baseball player who ever lived. While he was unable to keep up this ridiculous pace for the course of the season, going through a significant period of scuffles, Bruce still posted an OPS+ of 96 in his rookie season while hitting 21 home runs in only 413 ABs. Bruce hit under .300 for the first time since he was in low-A, and his average of .254 was most likely fueled by a BABIP that was over 50 points below his lowest BABIP in the minors. Defensively, Bruce is probably a touch below-average, but certainly nothing to worry about in RF, as he also had 8 outfield assists last season. Look for Bruce to have an OPS somewhere between .830-.870 in 2009, but don't be surprised if he breaks out and becomes an elite player in his second full season as well.
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